Interest Rate Scenario Analysis
Model how parallel shifts in interest rates affect estimated total return across the U.S. Treasury curve. Select your time horizon and rate increment to stress-test duration positioning for any portfolio allocation.
Last Updated at 06/23/2026
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Estimated 12-month total return for Benchmark U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds,
Assuming a Parallel Shift in Interest Rates
A hypothetical demonstration of mathematical principles using the horizon and increments selected. Last updated at 06/23/2026. |
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| Treasury Benchmark On-the-Run Issues |
+300bps | +200bps | +100bps | 0bps | -100bps | -200bps | -300bps |
|
2 Year US Treasury 4.16%
91282CQS3 05/31/2028 |
+1.478% | +2.357% | +3.248% | +4.151% | +5.068% | +5.997% | +6.940% |
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3 Year US Treasury 4.22%
91282CQV6 06/15/2029 |
-1.226% | +0.545% | +2.359% | +4.217% | +6.120% | +8.070% | +10.067% |
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5 Year US Treasury 4.27%
91282CQU8 05/31/2031 |
-5.863% | -2.629% | +0.743% | +4.261% | +7.931% | +11.760% | +15.758% |
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7 Year US Treasury 4.38%
91282CQT1 05/31/2033 |
-9.862% | -5.400% | -0.662% | +4.370% | +9.716% | +15.398% | +21.439% |
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10 Year US Treasury 4.50%
91282CQQ7 05/15/2036 |
-14.736% | -8.868% | -2.480% | +4.480% | +12.067% | +20.343% | +29.377% |
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20 Year US Treasury 4.96%
912810UV8 05/15/2046 |
-23.936% | -15.772% | -6.236% | +4.934% | +18.057% | +33.517% | +51.778% |
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30 Year US Treasury 4.94%
912810UU0 05/15/2056 |
-28.642% | -19.707% | -8.715% | +4.914% | +21.939% | +43.357% | +70.483% |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury data and calculations as of 06/23/2026. The table above shows the estimated 12-month total return from interest and price change of on-the-run, benchmark U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds for a given move in yields. Yield changes are assumed to be parallel across the curve and are based on duration and yield as of 06/23/2026. This analysis is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of future returns.