Interest Rate Scenario Analysis
Model how parallel shifts in interest rates affect estimated total return across the U.S. Treasury curve. Select your time horizon and rate increment to stress-test duration positioning for any portfolio allocation.
Last Updated at 09/11/2026
|
Estimated 12-month total return for Benchmark U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds,
Assuming a Parallel Shift in Interest Rates
A hypothetical demonstration of mathematical principles using the horizon and increments selected. Last updated at 09/11/2026. |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury Benchmark On-the-Run Issues |
+300bps | +200bps | +100bps | 0bps | -100bps | -200bps | -300bps |
|
2 Year US Treasury 4.63%
91282CRH6 08/31/2028 |
+1.876% | +2.782% | +3.701% | +4.633% | +5.579% | +6.538% | +7.511% |
|
3 Year US Treasury 4.69%
91282CRG8 08/15/2029 |
-0.612% | +1.111% | +2.875% | +4.680% | +6.529% | +8.421% | +10.358% |
|
5 Year US Treasury 4.78%
91282CRK9 08/31/2031 |
-5.370% | -2.127% | +1.255% | +4.783% | +8.464% | +12.306% | +16.317% |
|
7 Year US Treasury 4.87%
91282CRJ2 08/31/2033 |
-9.327% | -4.875% | -0.148% | +4.872% | +10.205% | +15.873% | +21.900% |
|
10 Year US Treasury 4.96%
91282CRF0 08/15/2036 |
-14.114% | -8.292% | -1.956% | +4.945% | +12.466% | +20.667% | +29.617% |
|
20 Year US Treasury 5.38%
912810UX4 08/15/2046 |
-23.034% | -14.991% | -5.611% | +5.360% | +18.231% | +33.373% | +51.237% |
|
30 Year US Treasury 5.35%
912810UW6 08/15/2056 |
-27.344% | -18.606% | -7.898% | +5.329% | +21.793% | +42.436% | +68.496% |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury data and calculations as of 09/11/2026. The table above shows the estimated 12-month total return from interest and price change of on-the-run, benchmark U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds for a given move in yields. Yield changes are assumed to be parallel across the curve and are based on duration and yield as of 09/11/2026. This analysis is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of future returns.
The scenario above is hypothetical in nature and is designed to show the cumulative change in return in the most recently issued U.S. Treasury bonds or notes of a particular maturity for a given increase or decrease in interest rates over equal 12-month periods. The following scenario analysis is not representative of any of the US Benchmark Series ETF's, is designed for informational purposes, and is not an offer to buy or sell any security. The information utilized has been provided by third party vendors which are believed to be accurate at the time of use. Although taken from reliable sources, FM cannot guarantee the accuracy of information received from third parties. The information is current as of the date of this presentation and is subject to change at any time, based on market or other conditions. All investing involves risk, including the possibility of loss of original investment. You should consider the investment objectives, risks, and fees before investing. Treasury securities and the associated coupon payments are not guaranteed and are solely based on the creditworthiness of the United States Government.