Interest Rate Scenario Analysis
Model how parallel shifts in interest rates affect estimated total return across the U.S. Treasury curve. Select your time horizon and rate increment to stress-test duration positioning for any portfolio allocation.
Last Updated at 07/31/2026
|
Estimated 12-month total return for Benchmark U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds,
Assuming a Parallel Shift in Interest Rates
A hypothetical demonstration of mathematical principles using the horizon and increments selected. Last updated at 07/31/2026. |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury Benchmark On-the-Run Issues |
+300bps | +200bps | +100bps | 0bps | -100bps | -200bps | -300bps |
|
2 Year US Treasury 4.28%
91282CRB9 07/31/2028 |
+1.457% | +2.384% | +3.324% | +4.279% | +5.247% | +6.229% | +7.226% |
|
3 Year US Treasury 4.34%
91282CQZ7 07/15/2029 |
-1.029% | +0.717% | +2.504% | +4.334% | +6.208% | +8.128% | +10.093% |
|
5 Year US Treasury 4.45%
91282CRA1 07/31/2031 |
-5.762% | -2.501% | +0.900% | +4.449% | +8.154% | +12.022% | +16.060% |
|
7 Year US Treasury 4.59%
91282CRC7 07/31/2033 |
-9.722% | -5.236% | -0.471% | +4.591% | +9.971% | +15.692% | +21.777% |
|
10 Year US Treasury 4.75%
91282CQQ7 05/15/2036 |
-14.214% | -8.429% | -2.138% | +4.709% | +12.164% | +20.288% | +29.144% |
|
20 Year US Treasury 5.28%
912810UV8 05/15/2046 |
-23.114% | -15.086% | -5.724% | +5.224% | +18.064% | +33.166% | +50.975% |
|
30 Year US Treasury 5.27%
912810UU0 05/15/2056 |
-27.484% | -18.748% | -8.032% | +5.213% | +21.708% | +42.398% | +68.527% |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury data and calculations as of 07/31/2026. The table above shows the estimated 12-month total return from interest and price change of on-the-run, benchmark U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds for a given move in yields. Yield changes are assumed to be parallel across the curve and are based on duration and yield as of 07/31/2026. This analysis is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of future returns.