Interest Rate Scenario Analysis
Model how parallel shifts in interest rates affect estimated total return across the U.S. Treasury curve. Select your time horizon and rate increment to stress-test duration positioning for any portfolio allocation.
Last Updated at 08/21/2026
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Estimated 12-month total return for Benchmark U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds,
Assuming a Parallel Shift in Interest Rates
A hypothetical demonstration of mathematical principles using the horizon and increments selected. Last updated at 08/21/2026. |
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| Treasury Benchmark On-the-Run Issues |
+300bps | +200bps | +100bps | 0bps | -100bps | -200bps | -300bps |
|
2 Year US Treasury 4.24%
91282CRB9 07/31/2028 |
+1.561% | +2.438% | +3.327% | +4.229% | +5.143% | +6.070% | +7.010% |
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3 Year US Treasury 4.31%
91282CRG8 08/15/2029 |
-1.128% | +0.641% | +2.452% | +4.307% | +6.207% | +8.153% | +10.147% |
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5 Year US Treasury 4.43%
91282CRA1 07/31/2031 |
-5.650% | -2.433% | +0.921% | +4.419% | +8.068% | +11.876% | +15.850% |
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7 Year US Treasury 4.57%
91282CRC7 07/31/2033 |
-9.618% | -5.172% | -0.452% | +4.560% | +9.884% | +15.542% | +21.558% |
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10 Year US Treasury 4.74%
91282CRF0 08/15/2036 |
-14.480% | -8.614% | -2.225% | +4.736% | +12.327% | +20.611% | +29.656% |
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20 Year US Treasury 5.25%
912810UV8 05/15/2046 |
-23.074% | -15.067% | -5.733% | +5.180% | +17.975% | +33.019% | +50.755% |
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30 Year US Treasury 5.27%
912810UW6 08/15/2056 |
-27.670% | -18.871% | -8.079% | +5.264% | +21.887% | +42.747% | +69.105% |
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury data and calculations as of 08/21/2026. The table above shows the estimated 12-month total return from interest and price change of on-the-run, benchmark U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds for a given move in yields. Yield changes are assumed to be parallel across the curve and are based on duration and yield as of 08/21/2026. This analysis is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of future returns.